Estimated Rise in Serialized Drugs in The U.S. Supply Chain, 2011

Last year at this time I started an annual estimate of the rise in the percentage of drugs in the U.S. supply chain that will have serial numbers attached.  Click here to read last year’s essay that explains the concept.  It’s not an estimate of the actual percentage today.  Rather, it’s a prediction of the rise from an immeasurably small percentage in early 2010 to 100% at some time in the future.  My plan is to revisit my prediction each year at this time to see how it is faring.  (click the drawing to enlarge it.)

Last year I said I would need to update my prediction if anything in the legal landscape changes.  Nothing has really changed in the last year that would lead me to change my prediction so here is my graph with no changes to the data over last year.  I have simply updated the year and placed an arrow on the X-axis to show the current point in time.

As I pointed out last year, it will be kind of hard to tell how well my prediction is doing if some authority with the means to measure the actual percentage doesn’t step up and make it public.  In the last 12 months no entity has stepped up to Continue reading Estimated Rise in Serialized Drugs in The U.S. Supply Chain, 2011