Tag Archives: Inference

How Should Inference Work?

January 23, 2013 Dirk Rodgers 2 Comments

The wide-scale use of “inference” in the pharmaceutical supply chain is essential to the successful operation of a track & track or ePedigree system. Companies cannot be expected to open every case they plan to ship, or that they receive, so that they can figure out exactly which package-level serial numbers are involved. The use of the serial number packaging hierarchy, or, “Aggregation information”, to “infer” which packages are being shipped or received is the only way to maintain a level of supply chain efficiency that is close to pre-serialization levels. On the other hand, regulator acceptance of the use of inference in the supply chain has the potential to complicate their investigation of criminals.

In recognition of its importance in maintaining efficiencies, the California legislature instructed the Board of Pharmacy to draw up rules that would allow companies to optionally make use of it (see my essay “Inference in the Pharmaceutical Supply Chain” for the exact text of the inference provisions of the California Business and Professions Code). It leaves the important question about who Continue reading How Should Inference Work? →

Congress, Federal Pedigree

Congressional Legislation Development: Mad Libs Edition!

October 29, 2012 Dirk Rodgers 3 Comments

I’ve now finished studying the latest Congressional Discussion Draft to Improve Drug Distribution Security. As promised last Thursday, here is my analysis. Overall I’d say it is a very serious attempt to develop a raw text that everyone can agree on.

But the only reason everyone can agree on it is that there are literally hundreds of multiple-choice options (they call them “policy choices”) built in–kind of like Mad Libs. Anyone can use a marker to go through and cross out all the choices that they don’t like and they would end up with a bill that their constituency would probably accept. The problem is Continue reading Congressional Legislation Development: Mad Libs Edition! →

Aggregation, Inference

Pharma Aggregation: How Companies Are Achieving Perfection Today

March 26, 2012 Dirk Rodgers 7 Comments

Bottle ID photo courtesy of Optel Vision

One of the biggest challenges for companies in the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain when the California pedigree law becomes operational after December 31, 2014 will be the need to maximize the efficiency of dealing with serial numbers on each drug package. One way to do that is to maximize the use of “inference” where the case serial number is read and the unit package-level serial numbers are “inferred” from the unit-to-case aggregation information supplied by the upstream trading partner (See my essays “Inference in the Pharmaceutical Supply Chain” and “Will The Pharma Supply Chain Be Able To Use Inference? Maybe Not!”).

But the problem with the use of inference is that you need to be able to rely on the accuracy of the aggregation information that your supplier provides to you. There is an element of trust in that—not just that you trust your supplier to be truthful with you but that you trust that your supplier’s case packing processes and systems will always accurately capture and document the unit-to-case hierarchy—or “aggregation”. You must be able to trust that the aggregation information your supplier provides to you will be 100% accurate. That’s a lot of trust. Continue reading Pharma Aggregation: How Companies Are Achieving Perfection Today →

California Pedigree Law

California Board of Pharmacy Re-awaken

September 1, 2011 Dirk Rodgers 3 Comments

For the first time in over two years the topic of pedigree appears on the agenda of the California Board of Pharmacy for their upcoming meeting on September 7. Earlier this year in a presentation at the FDA Track & Trace Workshop Board Executive Office Virginia Herald mentioned that the Board would take up the topics of inference, drop shipments, decommissioning and linkage between shipping orders and invoices at a future meeting in 2011. It’s hard to tell if those will be the actual topics discussed in next week’s meeting because they aren’t called out explicitly. Here is the item as it actually appears on the agenda: Continue reading California Board of Pharmacy Re-awaken →

Industry Adoption

Plateaus of Pharma Supply Chain Security

May 31, 2011 Dirk Rodgers 6 Comments

One of the most recent improvements that California made to their drug pedigree law was to spread out the compliance dates by supply chain segment. Previously, all segments had to comply with the regulation by January 2011. Now drug manufacturers will need to comply with half of the products (or sales) by January 2015 and the remainder one year later, distributors must comply by mid-2016 and the pharmacies by mid-2017. As I understand it, this spread was intended to help the industry fully prepare for the new requirements in their businesses. Companies would now have time to adjust to the changes implemented by their upstream trading partners according to their earlier deadlines.

This staggered start pleased a lot of people—particularly distributors and pharmacies. However, to me, the staggered start of the current California regulation doesn’t address the issue of complexity very well and a different kind of ramp up to full operation would be more practical and have better odds for success.

I discussed complexity in my last essay, “U.S. Pharma Supply Chain Complexity”. I tried to show what it is about the supply chain that leads to difficulty in the setup and execution of a drug pedigree system. On its own, the U.S. pharma supply chain is naturally complex. A truly workable and protective pedigree system needs to deal with that natural complexity without exploding in its own complexity and cost. As I pointed out in that essay, the problem with the more popular pedigree models (like DPMS and the various distributed pedigree models) is the large number of the point-to-point data connections that are necessary to reflect the natural complexity of the supply chain. That adds a lot of complexity.

THE PLATEAUS OF SECURITY

No matter which model the industry implements, starting it up will have its own complexities. In my view, regulators and industry should Continue reading Plateaus of Pharma Supply Chain Security →

Inference

Will The Pharma Supply Chain Be Able To Use Inference? Maybe Not!

June 7, 2010 Dirk Rodgers 13 Comments

In an essay published in April, I explained my theory that “RFID is DEAD…at Unit-level in Pharma”, which, if true, would mean that most drugs in the U.S. supply chain would be serialized by manufacturers with 2D barcodes by 2015 for California. In my last essay, “Inference in the Pharmaceutical Supply Chain”, I carried that theory one step further by showing how the widespread reliance on 2D barcodes to serialize at the unit level would lead directly to the widespread use of the practice of inference in the supply chain. This would be out of necessity since the unit-level serial numbers would not be readable without opening their containers, something that can’t happen because it is so inefficient that it would cripple the supply chain. So let me say it this way, the widespread use of 2D barcodes for unit-level serialization will necessitate the widespread reliance on inference. The former leads to the latter just like excessive sunshine leads to sunburn.

But the projections of widespread reliance on inference lead directly to a new concern. Let me explain. Successful use of inference for determining the contents of cases is totally dependent on the accuracy of the aggregation information established and provided by the manufacturer, or whoever packed them. If a packer uses a casepacking process that is incapable of yielding highly accurate aggregation information, inference will not work well.

This is a problem. A big problem, because Continue reading Will The Pharma Supply Chain Be Able To Use Inference? Maybe Not! →

Inference

Inference in the Pharmaceutical Supply Chain

May 24, 2010 Dirk Rodgers 3 Comments

In my recent essay, “RFID is DEAD…at Unit-level in Pharma”, I used relative cost estimates to theorize that Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID) will not be the predominant carrier of serial numbers applied to drug packages for compliance with U.S. pedigree laws. My theory is that there will actually be a mix of RFID and 2D barcodes, and that barcodes will be the predominant carrier technology. As you might expect, that was a little controversial with the RFID industry (See RFID Journal’s blog post in response to my essay). Hey, it’s just a theory. I too, wish everything would be RFID, and for all of the reasons cited by RFID Journal. It’s just that I don’t believe it’s going to turn out that way and that’s based on the logic I laid out in my essay. (Also see FiercePharma Manufacturing’s more neutral post in response to my essay.)

BARCODES WILL PREDOMINATE. LET’S MOVE ON…

In a mixed-but-predominantly-barcode-serialized U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain, companies will not be able to tell which unit serial numbers are inside of each sealed case at receiving or at shipping. Because barcodes are a “line-of-sight” technology, the only way to tell with absolute certainty what the sealed-up unit serial numbers are will be to cut the tape seal, open the case, expose the barcodes, scan each unit and tape the case closed again.

It is a ridiculous notion to believe that Continue reading Inference in the Pharmaceutical Supply Chain →

Data Carriers

RFID is DEAD…at Unit-Level in Pharma

April 12, 2010 Dirk Rodgers 15 Comments

That’s right. And it comes from an economic reality that was evident even six years ago. That was when a small group of people with various pharmaceutical supply chain backgrounds had an informal discussion of the relative costs and impacts that each of the three primary business segments in the supply chain would face in a full deployment of Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID). As I recall, this conversation may not have even been part of the official proceedings of the project we were assembled to work on at the time. It may have actually occurred during one of the social hours after a day of meetings, but it stuck with me. Ever since that time I kept meaning to get around to creating the graphs that we envisioned at that time but have never gotten around to it, until now. Continue reading RFID is DEAD…at Unit-Level in Pharma →

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